Jun 18 2008

Peak Oil

My friend B. wrote me this:

So I was reading the Bay Area Guardian, something I do exactly as regularly as I vote, and I ran across something that I thought might interest you. It seems San Francisco has a Peak Oil Preparedness Task Force to explore life after fossil fuels. Of course few take them seriously.

And I replied:

Do you mean that people locally don’t take the task force in SF seriously? Or don’t take post-oil seriously?

The peak oilers are sometimes hard to listen to because they’re so apocalyptically pessimistic. They see the energy packed into a hydrocarbon molecule and moan, What can possibly replace this? They don’t see anything on the shelf that can replace oil, so assume we’re all doomed. I do admire their historical analysis, tho, and I think Hubbert was right; well, he was right, US production peaked right when he said it would. A year or so ago the Saudi Minister of Energy said the planet was running out of oil and had to get ready. And now the King of Saudi Arabia has created a $10-billion endowment for a new university, sci and tech research, that will be a mini-kingdom unto itself in order to free it (and thus attract students and faculty) of Sharia, the heinous religious law of fundamentalist Islam. The king’s reasoning was explicit: Saudi Arabia won’t be an energy economy for much longer and needs to transform itself into a knowledge economy. Amen, brother. At last we agree on something.

I just watched a fairly well done documentary called “A Crude Awakening.” Very peak-oil pessimistic. It’s my impression, and this flick is a prime example, that most people concerned about energy focus on transportation. No doubt a key stone in the arch of civilization, but agriculture, as she is practiced, uses at least as much and, if you count peripheral parts of the industry beyond diesel for tractors and fertilizers for soil and include food packaging (transport is of course huge here, but no one compares total transport to total food system energy costs, not much anyway)–well, we probably spend a third on transport, a third on packaging and moving food around, and a third growing and processing food. So they way we do ag is the elephant in the room–not to disparage elephants.

I think more and more people are taking post-petroleum seriously–or are at least entertaining the idea to see if they can make a buck. Peak oilers are marginalized because they speak fear–and, well, fear is static, it lacks directed motion. It’s one of the four Fs, for Pete’s sake. The energy marketplace, though, is at least an extension of known territory, and we’ve long had multiple sources of energy. That’s why I’m partial to the addiction metaphor: we’ve long had a choice of drugs and I like my marketing to have a sharp, recognizably dangerous edge, but also have hope for change.

Beyond that, and into true intellectual honesty, IMHO, our human energy situation exceeds in complexity any single-theory explanation. Peak oil is true, addiction is true, human ingenuity is true, tipping-points of bi-polar Mama Earth are true–and that’s already too many bags of variables for any group of human minds to wrap around singly, much less together–at least at the present. We don’t know what is going on. We don’t know the true cost of energy any better than we know the true cost of the food we eat.

So what’s new? There’s your historical analysis.

But we humans are fungus-like: we keep shooting out filaments and slimes of technology to save ourselves from the slings and arrows. So here’s a hopeful filament: nano-scale machines that gather energy from a heartbeat to power that body’s pacemaker. That, my friend, is pretty damn close to a free lunch. And that got me thinking, Why not my typing harvesting energy (like brakes in your hybrid) to power my laptop? We keep goofing off with nanotech clothing that flashes and whirs, so why not design it to harvest the energy otherwise lost when walking? As a dancer, you can perhaps visualize how motion is mostly wasted energy; when waste is minimized, we call it grace and beauty.

One Response to “Peak Oil”

  1. Hempsteron 30 Jun 2008 at 10:52 pm

    We don’t even know if Peak Oil is for real. Come on, the same orgs that supply the bad news make huge profits on the fear of scarcity. No one knows for sure how oil is created, there is some evidence it may be a by-product of a bacteria, always in production and never to be scarce.

    Now, wouldn’t that put a crimp into profits?

    But on the other hand, who’s to know otherwise for sure?

    Do a search for APPLE (Association of Post-Petroleum Local Economies). Willits north of SF seems to be one of the strongest but there are several more and seems to be more every time I look. Large urban areas will never be able to provide for all people with current or foreseeable level of technology.

    If you are going to meditate on peak oil, read up on Malthus. Most bets are that food shortages will kill billions before we run out of oil anyway. The others bet that pure water shortages will do in many more before lack of oil becomes major issue.

    Good chance with billions dead from starvation and bad water oil demand will go down. Less demand should mean lower prices. Except for market speculation of course.

    That is part of what is driving prices now, combined with the weakening dollar. Europe for example has not seen the huge jumps as we have in the U.S.A. Think about it, demand has not suddenly jumped nor has capacity decreased. The price jumps are due to market manipulation by speculators and an imploding economy.

    What you will see is more fascism as corporations seek profits during an imploding economy. Study pre-WWII Italy economic conditions. Things will look familiar.

    Also, hegemonic governmental bureaucracies will increase their greed. Entrenched bureaucrats will (many already do) make more money and exercise more power than elected officials. They are already untouchable. Someone will have to pay for their growing salaries and benefits. Guess who?

    Check out that nice lady who decides if people qualify for food stamps. She drives a Lexus and takes ocean cruises for vacations 8 weeks a year and wait until you see the perks that come with seniority.

    Many clues await in the recent collapse of the U.S.S.R.

    Crime syndicates getting into everything, bloated entrenched bureaucracies reaching further with taxation, really scary unrestrained for real laissez-faire capitalism making profits at every turn, local law enforcement increasingly distrusted, paranoid and embattled within their own communities and you are worried about what will replace oil in 40-60 years?

    The whole oil thing looks like a diversion to me.

    Like, let’s all get hot and bothered about what we are going to put in our SUVs for the family vacation this year and not think about global warming and how its consequences will be amplified by an imploding global economy and artificially jacked-up oil prices.

    Have we all forgotten who runs main stream media and now believe what they are telling us? You can’t get away from this oil hysteria. Who believes this information is provided by a populist press? Like, all of a sudden main stream media delivers the truth?

    We are living through the collapse of a global empire. As it slides into oblivion dragging down everything it can get its hooks into, and remember it’s global, it’s anyone’s bet what event will trigger the tipping point plunging everything into one fast wild ride to rock bottom.

    Slow and painful until fast and horrific.

    How’s this for speculation?

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